TDY

What TDY’s Earnings Track Record Shows

Over the last 8 reported quarters, TDY beat the consensus EPS estimate 8 out of 8 times (100%), with an average earnings surprise of 4.5%. That is a strong headline record, but it is only half of the trading story. The average 5-day price move in the sessions after earnings across those same quarters is -3.09%, classified as a down drift. In other words, the stock has consistently delivered upside surprises, yet the price response has more often faded than followed through over the next week.

The last four quarters illustrate the disconnect clearly. On July 22, 2026, TDY reported actual EPS of $6.28 against an estimate of $5.79, an 8.5% beat, and the stock moved just 0.11% the next day before falling 2.94% over the following five sessions. On April 22, 2026, actual EPS of $5.80 vs. estimate $5.47 (6.0% surprise) produced a next-day decline of 0.75% and a 5-day drop of 3.98%. On January 21, 2026, actual EPS of $6.30 vs. estimate $5.83 (8.1% surprise) saw the stock slip 0.03% the next day and 0.24% over five days. Even the smaller 1.8% beat on October 22, 2025 ($5.57 vs. $5.47) led to a next-day loss of 1.29% and a 5-day decline of 5.22%. These numbers show that a beat, by itself, has not translated into sustained upside for TDY.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the October 28 Report

TDY’s next scheduled earnings release is October 28, 2026, before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $6.12. Heading into that date, options-implied volatility typically rises as market participants price the risk of a gap versus that consensus. Short-dated option premiums therefore tend to embed an expected move in either direction, and after the report—assuming no immediate volatility shock—those premiums usually compress in a classic post-earnings volatility crush.

Given the historical 5-day drift of -3.09%, options flow into October 28 may reflect asymmetric positioning around a potential fade. Call buyers looking for a continuation rally after a beat have historically seen the stock reverse; premium sellers may see elevated implied volatility relative to realized follow-through, though gap risk around the event can still create assignment exposure. Watch where open interest and put/call skew build relative to the current price of $655.9, because that positioning can reveal where traders are actually placing capital for volatility rather than simply betting on the consensus direction.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches For

A disciplined trader separates the EPS surprise from the price reaction. The 100% beat rate and 4.5% average surprise suggest the published consensus has historically been too low, implying the market’s real expectation sits above the $6.12 estimate for the October 28 report. If TDY beats again, the key question is whether the stock holds the opening gap or follows the established -3.09% average 5-day drift lower.

Useful context includes the technical setup: price at $655.9, RSI at 58.6, and the 50-day EMA at $637.18. A higher opening gap on a beat may face historical mean-reversion pressure, while a break of the 50-day EMA would be worth tracking for volume confirmation. Volume, the overnight implied-move pricing, and the immediate intraday direction relative to the previous close all matter more than the beat-or-miss binary for a stock with this pattern.

For a deeper dive, readers should explore the full institutional verdict, which synthesizes sell-side estimates, estimate revisions, and post-earnings flow context beyond the headline numbers discussed here.